Kate's January 2015 property price summary with data from Rightmove and RICS

publication date: Jan 12, 2015
author/source: Kate Faulkner, Property Expert and Author of Which? Property Books

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Property Price Summary - January 2015

We track most of the monthly reports on property prices produced on a monthly basis. Although the indices use varying forms of measurement, what we look for from the reports are any trends that are appearing in the property market.

Download the full report for January 2015

Kate's comments on the property price report headlines
“Latest data reports suggest the seasonal slowdown was in full swing towards the end of 2014. However, many reported this as the market ‘slowing’ in general, especially in parts of London which has grown tremendously over the last 18 months to two years. In reality, no-one knows if this was a ‘normal’ slowdown, or whether it’s a sign of things to come and 2015 will be a quiet year. The dynamics of the market are changing, this is the first year the government has intervened via new powers given to the Bank of England to hold back lending, and with an election looming and housing firmly on the agenda, we don’t know if it will encourage or spook buyers and sellers. This means the next three months’ activity will be crucial in understanding which way the market will go this year.”

Actual Report Headlines

  • Rightmove “Largest ever monthly drop in asking prices - but 2015 rise still forecast.
  • Home.co.uk “Home prices catch a winter chill.”
  • NAEA “Housing shortage crisis could worsen in 2015, predict NAEA members.”
  • RICS “Stamp Duty reform to boost activity.”
  • Nationwide “Annual house price growth continues to soften as 2014 draws to a close.”
  • Halifax “House prices in the final three months of 2014 were 0.3% higher than in the preceding three months.”
  • Agency Express “Seasonal slump in November.”
  • Acadata “London & South East hold back house price growth.”
  • Land Registry “The November data shows a monthly price decrease of 0.1 per cent.”

Average house prices clearly vary from region to region so it's important for us to look at how the house price market is looking around the nation.

Kate's comments on regional price differences
“After the 1990s, we saw prices increase year on year in 2000 in London by 30-40%. This increase spread to the regions in 2003, when prices increased by 20-30%. In 2013/14, London Boroughs saw prices rise by 15-35%, so growth is no-where near as high as before. In the regions, we are seeing prices rise 5-10%, so again, not as quick a recovery as before and forecasts over the next five years from Savills, Knight Frank and Chestertons very much suggest prices slowing, with CEBR predicting price falls. In 2015, we may be looking at not just lower growth but also the market volumes tightening, as it takes people longer to secure increased equity which allows them to move up the ladder.”

Here's what the indices are saying about regional variations
Home.co.uk “Aside from the dramatic price performance in the capital, the best performing regions in 2014 were East Anglia and the South East, posting rises of 9.0% and 8.3% respectively. The worst performing English region was the North East which registered a sub-inflation rise of just 0.9%. Wales has not performed much better; prices in the principality have risen by just 1.6% over the last 12 months. The fortunes of the UK property market have been highly disparate on a geographic basis in 2014, and we expect this situation to lessen in 2015 as price growth spreads further out into the regions. (Dec 14)”

RICS “London at the present time remains the only area where more members are telling us that prices are slipping rather than increasing; all other parts of the UK are producing numbers consistent with further increases in house prices in the near term. (Nov 14)”

Acadata “Property values in the capital and surrounding areas are beginning to concede ground after significant advancement over the last year. Average house prices dropped in a third of all London boroughs in the month to November, with Southwark experiencing the sharpest fall in average values of 3.1%. Monthly house price growth has continued if the exceptional London and South East regions are excluded from our calculations. Similarly, annual price rises across England and Wales are stable when these regions are omitted, as home values across the rest of the country stand firm and continue forward on their calmer trajectory. (Dec 14)”

Land Registry “The region with the most significant annual price increase is London with a movement of 17.4 per cent. Wales saw the lowest annual price growth with a movement of 1.7 per cent. West Midlands experienced the greatest monthly price rise with a movement of 1.7 per cent. The East saw the largest monthly decrease with a fall of 1.4 per cent. (Nov 14)”

Download the full report for January 2015

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